Visa Bulletin predictions are some of the most shared posts in immigration communities, and most of them are guesses presented as forecasts. The law itself only asks the government to estimate. The State Department "may make reasonable estimates of the anticipated numbers of visas to be issued during any quarter of any fiscal year" and "rely upon such estimates in authorizing the issuance of visas" (8 U.S.C. 1153(g)).
As of October 29, 2026, this guide explains what is actually known about how the bulletin is set, why it moves the way it does, and which official signals are worth watching.
- The employment-based worldwide level is 140,000 plus unused family-sponsored numbers from the previous fiscal year.
- Each country is capped at 7% of family and employment preference visas in a fiscal year.
- The State Department may issue no more than 27% of the annual total in each of the first three quarters.
- Visa numbers are allocated in chronological order of priority dates.
- The law lets the State Department rely on reasonable estimates of demand, so movement can reverse.
- At the end of June 2026, USCIS reported 268,408 employment-based I-485s and 203,204 I-140s pending.
How many visas are there to start with?
The starting numbers are set by statute. "The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to" 140,000, plus a number computed from the prior year (8 U.S.C. 1151(d)(1)). That added number is "the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 1153(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year" (8 U.S.C. 1151(d)(2)(C)).
In plain terms, unused family numbers from last year raise this year's employment total. That amount is not known until the prior year's family issuance is counted, which is one reason early-year predictions are fragile.
How are the numbers divided?
| Rule | Source |
|---|---|
| EB-1 gets "28.6 percent of such worldwide level," plus any unused EB-4 and EB-5 numbers | 8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(1) |
| EB-2 gets 28.6 percent, "plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraph (1)" | 8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(2) |
| No single country may exceed "7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state)" of family and employment preference visas | 8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2) |
| Visas go out "in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed" | 8 U.S.C. 1153(e)(1) |
There is also a release valve. If a category has more numbers in a calendar quarter than "the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas," the visas "shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation" of the per-country cap "during the remainder of the calendar quarter" (8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(5)(A)). Whether that happens depends on demand, which is exactly what outside predictors cannot see.
What does the arithmetic look like?
Before any spillover, 28.6 percent of 140,000 is 40,040 numbers each for EB-1 and EB-2 in a fiscal year. That sounds like a lot until you account for who uses them. The statute gives a spouse or child "the same status, and the same order of consideration" as the principal applicant when "accompanying or following to join" (8 U.S.C. 1153(d)). In practice that means family members draw from the same category's numbers, so a single approved petition can use several visas.
That is the first gap in most predictions. A forecaster who counts petitions cannot know how many family members stand behind each one, how many applicants will be ready when their date arrives, or how many will drop out because they changed plans, left the country or moved to another category. The State Department and USCIS see more of that picture than anyone outside government, and even their numbers are estimates.
The second gap is timing. The added family numbers depend on how many family-sponsored visas went unused in the prior fiscal year, and the per-country release valve depends on demand within each quarter. Both change the supply after a prediction is made.
Why does timing within the year matter?
Because issuance is capped by quarter and month. The State Department limits immigrant visas and adjustments to a number "not to exceed 27 percent of the world-wide total" in "any of the first three quarters of any fiscal year," and "not to exceed, in any month of a fiscal year, 10% of the world-wide total" plus any unused balance from earlier months (22 CFR 42.51(a), eCFR).
Within those limits, numbers are allocated "based on the chronological order of the priority dates of visa applicants" abroad and of adjustment applicants reported by DHS (22 CFR 42.51(b)). The cutoff date is the point in that line the available numbers are expected to reach.
Why do dates retrogress?
Because estimates can be wrong. USCIS explains that "sometimes, a priority date that is current one month will not be current the next month, or the cut-off date will move backward to an earlier date" (USCIS, Visa Availability and Priority Dates). If more applicants with early priority dates become ready than expected, a date set too far forward has to come back so issuance stays within the annual limit. Our guide to priority date retrogression walks through the pattern.
What demand can you actually see?
Only part of it. USCIS's quarterly data shows how many cases are waiting. At the end of June 2026, USCIS reported 203,204 I-140 petitions pending across all employment categories (USCIS, Form I-140 data, FY 2026 Q3) and 268,408 employment-based I-485 applications pending (USCIS, Quarterly All Forms data, FY 2026 Q3).
Those figures count petitions and applications, not people with ready cases at a given priority date. They do not include family members who will each need a number, consular cases abroad, or people whose priority dates are not yet current and have not filed an I-485. That missing information is why public predictions, however detailed, cannot match the government's view. Our overview of the green card backlog in 2026 puts the numbers in context.
What should you watch instead?
Official sources do not predict the future either, but they tell you what is actually happening, and they are the only ones your case will be judged against. Check them in this order each month, and compare several months before drawing conclusions:
- The USCIS filing charts page. Each month USCIS states which chart applies. For November 2026, it says "for all employment-based preference categories, you must use the Dates for Filing chart" (USCIS, Adjustment of Status Filing Charts).
- The Visa Bulletin itself. The current bulletin is the only official source for cutoffs. Our guide to the two Visa Bulletin charts explains how to read it.
- USCIS quarterly data. Pending I-140 and I-485 counts show where demand is building.
- The direction over several months, rather than any single month's movement.
What this means for you
- Treat Visa Bulletin predictions as opinion, not information.
- Plan around your own priority date and the current official cutoff.
- Keep your options open: an approved I-140 generally preserves your priority date for a later petition in EB-1, EB-2 or EB-3, as our guide to priority date retention explains.
- If your category is badly backlogged, ask whether a different category is realistic for your profile.
- Expect uneven movement within the fiscal year because of the quarterly limits.
Where to start
Our free evaluation at /evaluate/ shows whether your record could support a faster category such as EB-1A or EB-1B, and Frank, our AI assistant at /frank, helps you build the evidence for it. Petitions are reviewed and filed by our partner law firm, Lai & Turner.
Sources
All checked October 29, 2026.
- 8 U.S.C. 1151(d) (INA 201(d)). Employment-based worldwide level and family spillover.
- 8 U.S.C. 1152(a) (INA 202(a)). 7% per-country cap; employment-based exception when numbers exceed demand.
- 8 U.S.C. 1153(b), (e), (g) (INA 203). Category shares; order of filing; reasonable estimates.
- 8 CFR 204.5(e) (eCFR, current text). Retention of priority dates.
- 22 CFR 42.51 (eCFR, current text). Quarterly and monthly limits; allocation by priority date.
- USCIS, Visa Availability and Priority Dates. Retrogression.
- USCIS, Adjustment of Status Filing Charts from the Visa Bulletin. November 2026 chart choice.
- USCIS, Form I-140 data, FY 2026 Q3 and Quarterly All Forms data, FY 2026 Q3. Pending inventories.
Frequently asked questions
Can anyone accurately predict the Visa Bulletin?
No. The rules that shape the bulletin are public, but the complete demand behind each cutoff is not. The law allows the State Department to make reasonable estimates and rely on them, and USCIS notes that cutoffs can move backward. Treat any prediction, including a confident one on social media, as a guess rather than a forecast.
Why do Visa Bulletin dates go backward?
Retrogression happens when demand within a category is higher than the remaining visa numbers. Because the State Department sets cutoffs based on estimates, and must stay within quarterly and monthly limits, it may move a date back to keep issuance within the annual limit. USCIS describes this as a priority date that is current one month and not the next.
What is visa spillover?
Spillover is unused numbers moving to another place. Unused family-sponsored numbers from one fiscal year are added to the next year's employment-based total. Within employment categories, unused EB-1 numbers go to EB-2. And if a category has more numbers in a quarter than qualified applicants, the per-country cap stops applying for the rest of that quarter.
When do Visa Bulletin dates usually move?
There is no fixed schedule. The fiscal year starts October 1, and the regulations cap issuance at 27% of the annual total in each of the first three quarters and 10% per month plus unused balance. That structure can make movement uneven across the year, but the actual direction each month depends on demand.
What should I watch instead of predictions?
Three official sources. The USCIS Adjustment of Status Filing Charts page says each month which chart you must use. The Visa Bulletin shows the cutoffs. And USCIS's quarterly data shows how many I-140s and I-485s are pending, which gives a sense of demand building up behind the dates.
Green Card Guide AI is not a law firm and this article is not legal advice. It describes evidence-building strategy in general terms; your attorney determines what belongs in your petition and how it's argued.
