Green card backlog 2026: what 1.2 million waiting means for India and China

As of October 21, 2026, the most recent green card backlog 2026 estimate is about 1.26 million people waiting in the first three employment-based categories, and nearly one million of them were born in India. The figure comes from an August 2026 policy brief by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), a nonpartisan think tank, which estimated 1,264,495 people in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 backlog as of December 2025 (NFAP, Employment-Based Immigration Backlogs and Waiting Times, August 2026).

That number is an estimate, not an official count. USCIS publishes how many approved petitions are waiting for a visa, but only for principal applicants, not their spouses and children (USCIS, Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Availability, as of June 2026). The much-quoted 179-year wait for EB-2 India is NFAP's projection for someone filing today, under today's law (NFAP). This post sets out what each number measures and what it means if you are in, or about to join, the queue.

Green card backlog 2026: how many people are waiting?

NFAP estimates the backlog in the first three employment-based preferences grew by 216,153 people, or 20.6%, from 1,048,342 in April 2020 to 1,264,495 in December 2025 (NFAP, Table 1). The growth was not even across categories (NFAP):

To get from USCIS's principal-only counts to a total, NFAP estimated the number of dependents using the share of dependents (59%) among employment-based immigrants in fiscal year 2024 (NFAP). NFAP also projects that the backlog may exceed 2 million by 2040 without changes to U.S. immigration law (NFAP).

The backlog grew even though more green cards than usual were issued. NFAP, using the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, counts 980,460 employment-based green cards in fiscal years 2020 through 2024, against 700,000 expected under the normal annual limit, because unused family visas rolled over into employment categories (NFAP, Table 7). That rollover is written into the statute, which adds unused family-sponsored numbers from the previous year to the 140,000 employment-based baseline (8 U.S.C. 1151(d)).

What does the official USCIS data show?

USCIS publishes a quarterly table of approved I-140, I-360 and I-526 petitions awaiting visa availability, by category and country of birth. The most recent one, as of June 2026, counts 356,360 approved EB-2 petitions and 106,214 approved EB-3 professional and skilled worker petitions for India-born principals, plus 17,861 in EB-1 (USCIS, as of June 2026). Across all countries, the same table shows 391,296 approved EB-2 petitions waiting, so India accounts for the large majority of the EB-2 line (USCIS).

Two notes on that table matter for reading any backlog number built on it:

"The counts of approved petitions represent only primary beneficiaries. Dependents are not included." USCIS, Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Availability (as of June 2026), note 4

"Since petitioners are able to file more than one petition, this report includes all filed petitions; therefore, it could contain multiple petitions for a single individual." USCIS, Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Availability (as of June 2026), note 7

So the USCIS count can overstate people (one person with an approved EB-2 and an approved EB-3 appears twice) and understate them (no spouses or children). It also leaves out anyone whose PERM or I-140 is still pending, because it counts only approved petitions (USCIS). Every backlog total, including NFAP's, involves judgement calls about these gaps.

Why does the per-country cap hit India and China so hard?

Two limits in the Immigration and Nationality Act create the queue. The first is the annual total: USCIS explains that, in general, employment-based preference visas are limited to 140,000 a year (USCIS, Visa Availability and Priority Dates). EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 each receive up to 28.6 percent of the employment-based worldwide level, plus certain numbers left unused by other employment categories (8 U.S.C. 1153(b)). Spouses and children receive the same status and order of consideration as the principal (8 U.S.C. 1153(d)), and NFAP notes that the 140,000 limit includes dependents, who typically use half or more of the slots (NFAP).

The second is the per-country limit:

"the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) ... of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year." 8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(2) (INA 202(a)(2))

The same 7 percent applies to India and China as to much smaller countries, which is why NFAP notes that India and China are allotted the same number of green cards as Iceland and Luxembourg (NFAP). There is one release valve: if visas in an employment category would otherwise go unused in a calendar quarter, they are issued without regard to the per-country limit for the rest of that quarter (8 U.S.C. 1152(a)(5)(A)). USCIS sums up the result:

"When the demand is higher than the supply of visas for a given year in any given category or country, a visa queue (a waiting list or backlog) forms." USCIS, Visa Availability and Priority Dates (last reviewed 01/24/2025)

Which country's queue you join is set by your country of chargeability, usually your country of birth (USCIS). The statute determines chargeability by birth, with limited exceptions such as charging a spouse to the other spouse's country to avoid separating a couple (8 U.S.C. 1152(b)). Our guide to country of chargeability covers the exceptions.

Is the 179-year EB-2 India wait real?

It is a model, not a measured wait. NFAP's figure is the potential wait for an India-born applicant with a labor certification or immigrant petition filed in January 2026 or later, assuming the current backlog and current law (NFAP). NFAP's estimates for India are 179 years in EB-2, 38 years in EB-3 and 4 to 5 years in EB-1, and it notes that these figures exclude government processing time (NFAP, Table 2). The brief's executive summary rounds the EB-1 figure to 5 years (NFAP).

NFAP itself flags factors that make these figures uncertain. Its estimates are complicated by whether people waiting decide to abandon their applications to pursue opportunities in other countries, and by whether extra employment numbers arrive from shortfalls in family categories (NFAP). The brief suggests that the administration's 2025 and 2026 immigration restrictions could create a new family-visa shortfall that adds employment numbers (NFAP). Even so, NFAP concludes that anyone from India with an EB-2 or EB-3 application filed in 2025 or 2026 can likely expect to wait decades without a change in the law (NFAP). The precise number of years should not be read literally.

The arithmetic behind the backlog is easier to see in a single year. In fiscal year 2016, NFAP estimates USCIS approved EB-2 petitions covering about 98,594 India-born people including dependents, while 4,407 India-born people received EB-2 permanent residence that year (NFAP, Table 3).

How long is the wait for China-born applicants?

Shorter than India's, but still long. NFAP estimates 127,857 China-born people in the backlog as of December 2025: 32,801 in EB-1, 71,345 in EB-2 and 23,711 in EB-3 (NFAP, Table 5). Its projected waits for a China-born applicant filing in 2026 are about 5 years in EB-1, up to 25 years in EB-2 and up to 7 years in EB-3 (NFAP, Table 2). Notably, NFAP estimates the China EB-1 backlog grew 46.2% since April 2020, while the India EB-1 backlog fell 28.3% (NFAP, Tables 4 and 5). We cover the current China dates in detail in EB-1 and EB-2 wait times for China-born applicants.

Where do the Visa Bulletin dates stand in October 2026?

For October 2026, USCIS says employment-based applicants must use the Dates for Filing chart to decide when they can file Form I-485 (USCIS, Adjustment of Status Filing Charts). That chart shows (USCIS, When to File: October 2026):

These are filing dates, which USCIS describes as the earliest dates when applicants may be able to apply, not the final action dates, which it describes as the dates when visas may finally be issued (USCIS, When to File: October 2026). As of October 21, 2026, USCIS lists next month's filing charts as "coming soon" (USCIS, Adjustment of Status Filing Charts). For the India-specific picture, see EB-1A and EB-2 NIW wait times for Indians and our October 2026 Visa Bulletin breakdown.

What is official and what is an estimate?

Changing either the 140,000 total or the 7 percent limit requires Congress, because both are set in the statute (8 U.S.C. 1151; 8 U.S.C. 1152).

What this means for you

If you were born in India, the category you file in matters more than almost anything else. NFAP's estimates put EB-1 at roughly 4 to 5 years against decades for EB-2 and EB-3 (NFAP). That gap is a reason for India-born professionals with an EB-2 or EB-3 priority date to ask whether they could also qualify for EB-1A, EB-1B or EB-1C.

An earlier priority date is not lost when you move up. Under the regulation, an approved EB-1, EB-2 or EB-3 petition gives you its priority date for any later petition in those three categories, and you get the earliest date if you have several approvals, unless the approval is revoked for reasons such as fraud (8 CFR 204.5(e)). Our guide to priority date retention explains how this works in practice.

Where to start

If you are in the EB-2 or EB-3 queue and want to know whether an EB-1A or a stronger EB-2 NIW case is within reach, start with the free evaluation, which compares your record with the criteria. Frank, our AI assistant, can then find real opportunities for the criteria you are missing. Petitions are reviewed and filed by our partner law firm, Lai & Turner.

Sources

All checked October 21, 2026.

• NFAP Policy Brief, Employment-Based Immigration Backlogs and Waiting Times (August 2026). Backlog estimates by category and country, dependent methodology, projected waits, 2040 projection, FY 2016 example and FY 2020 to 2024 green card totals.
• USCIS, Number of Form I-140, I-360, I-526/E Approved Employment-Based Petitions Awaiting Visa Availability, as of June 2026 (queried July 2026). Official principal-only counts by category and country, and the table's notes.
• USCIS, Visa Availability and Priority Dates (last reviewed 01/24/2025). 140,000 annual limit, per-country limits, chargeability, how a backlog forms.
• USCIS, When to File Your Adjustment of Status Application: October 2026 (last reviewed 09/29/2026). October 2026 employment-based Dates for Filing chart; definitions of the two Visa Bulletin charts.
• USCIS, Adjustment of Status Filing Charts from the Visa Bulletin. Which chart applies in October 2026; next month's charts not yet posted.
• 8 U.S.C. 1151, Worldwide level of immigration (govinfo). 140,000 employment-based baseline plus unused family numbers.
• 8 U.S.C. 1152, Numerical limitations on individual foreign states (govinfo). 7 percent per-country limit, quarterly exception, chargeability rules.
• 8 U.S.C. 1153, Allocation of immigrant visas (govinfo). 28.6 percent EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 shares; treatment of spouses and children.
• 8 CFR 204.5, Petitions for employment-based immigrants (govinfo, 2025 edition). Priority date retention in paragraph (e).

Frequently asked questions

Green Card Guide AI is not a law firm and this article is not legal advice. It describes evidence-building strategy in general terms; your attorney determines what belongs in your petition and how it's argued.